The Causes of the World Depression




I. Economic Interdependence

In modern times the methods by which civilized peoples obtain food and goods and services have grown more involved and more complex with each passing year. In a primitive society a tribe or even a single family may manage to support itself with little or no outside aid. During the Middle Ages the inhabitants of many European hamlets raised their own food, made and mended their own tools, tanned their own leather, fashioned their own shoes and harness, and wove their own cloth. People who meet their own simple needs from their own limited local resources are said to be economically self-sufficient.

Even in the Middle Ages, however, dwellers in remote isolated villages obtained a few articles they could not produce themselves by buying them from travelling merchants. Or they might journey to a town a few miles away and purchase goods at a fair. Thus they were not exclusively dependent on their own labor.

The Age of Discovery, at the close of the Middle Ages, opened the oceans of the world to European ships and made it possible for Europe to obtain goods from distant continents. Later, with he Industrial Revolution, the Europeans learned to produce quantities of manufactured goods cheaply, and to sell what they did not need in exchange for raw materials, tropical products, and additional food.

During the nineteenth century international trade - trade between countries and between continents - increased at a rapid rate. By 1900 the total value of such commerce was ten times as great as it had been in 1800. by 1913 it was twenty times as great; and by 1929 (despite the disruption of World War I) it was over thirty times as valuable as it had been in 1800. In other words, almost all nations in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries became increasingly dependent on foreign markets, on selling goods to and buying goods from countries in other parts of the world.

As the value of this international trade increased the peoples of the world became more dependent on one another. Countries that possessed a surplus of some commodities sought to exchange that surplus for goods they wanted but lacked the means to produce for themselves. International trade brought the nations of the world into closer contact. It made them more dependent on one another, and made it more important that they cooperate in supplying one another's needs for the benefit of all. The American economist, Henry George, summed up this situation very simply in three words. He said: civilization is cooperation.

A. Progress and Inequality

The fact that, by the twentieth century, the world had come to resemble one vast market helps to explain its rapid progress and development. It helps to explain why goods were produced more abundantly and distributed more widely than ever before, why standards of living rose, and the global population increased at an astonishing rate.

Unfortunately, however, the increase in food and manufactured goods, the increase in wealth and prosperity, was not equally distributed. Some nations, that possessed or achieved unusual advantages, that developed more effective machines, and techniques, grew wealthy. Other nations, less favored by nature, less efficient, less resourceful or less industrious, remained poor. Just as in individual countries, a small minority of the inhabitants might be exceptionally wealthy and might preserve and enlarge their family fortunes, while the majority remained relatively poor, so among the nations of the world a few achieved a high standard of wealth while the majority subsisted on very much lower incomes.

Some countries and continents enjoyed a much larger share of world trade than others, and the countries with a large foreign trade were wealthy countries where income and living standards were high. Before World War I, for example, Europe, with about one-fourth of the world's people, monopolized nearly 60 per cent of the world's international trade. This was more than twice as much as the Europeans would have controlled if the international trade of each continent had been proportional to its population.

After World War I the European share declined to less than half the world total while that of North America (the United States and Canada) rose. By 1926 the North Americans claimed one-fifth of the international trade of the globe, nearly three times as much as their numbers would have entitled them to if this trade had been divided in proportion to population. But their good luck was due in part to the destruction and dislocation Europe had suffered during the war. After 1926 the Europeans recovered some of the trade they had lost, while the share the North Americans had obtained declined.

B. Obstacles to Trade

These facts suggest several points concerning international trade which it is important to remember. In theory the universal exchange of goods seems deceptively simple. If every people produced those goods which their resources and skills best fitted them to produce, and all nations were willing and able to exchange goods freely, the whole world would benefit and its peoples would become more and more cooperative and interdependent. To some extent this is what has come about in modern times. But the growth of international trade has been slowed and hampered by three difficulties that proved very hard to overcome. It is impossible to understand the strains and tensions of the modern world unless these obstacles to trade, and their causes, are taken into account.

1. Unequal buying power

The first difficulty is that the peoples whose need is greatest buy the least. For trade is an exchange and very poor people with low incomes have little surplus to offer for things they lack. In 1926, for instance, Asia, Africa, and South America together held over three-quarters of the world population but enjoyed only one-quarter of its international trade.

2. Rich nations and poor nations

A second difficulty is that a rich nation that could afford to buy the surplus a poor nation offers frequently refuses to do so. Some Asian countries that need and want to buy machines or medicines from the United States may have cotton or rice to offer in exchange. But American farmers also raise cotton and rice. To protect them, the United States may refuse to buy cotton or rice from Asia although it is cheaper than their own. This may mean that American consumers pay higher prices for their home-grown rice or cotton than they need to do, and the Asian people, who want to buy goods from the United States, are unable to buy them.

3. Tariff barriers and other obstacles

Tariff barriers and other obstacles that nations impose on the free exchange of goods obstruct international trade. Governments do not regulate their trade in the way that will be best for humanity as a whole. They do not always regulate it in the way that would be most advantageous for their own people as a whole. Sometimes they impose import duties on a commodity in a way that inflicts a hardship on foreigners and on most of their won people, but enables a small number of their own people to obtain a higher price for their products. It must be kept in mind, however, that by producing a commodity within its own frontiers, even if it could buy an ample supply more cheaply abroad, a nation preserves one important advantage. Its supply of that commodity cannot be cut off by a blockade or a war.

In a world of competing states every nation seeks to protect itself. It wants other countries to become dependent on it but it does not want to become dependent on them. This situation creates a paradox. For while international trade makes nations more interdependent, they try to regulate their imports and exports in such a way that they will be more independent.

The basic wish of every nation is to be secure and prosperous but these selfish goals are unattainable. In the world of the twentieth century no country is secure from attack and prosperous countries excite the envy of the impoverished majority. This is one reason why the modern age has been called the "Age of Anxiety," but there are other reasons also for the strains and tensions that afflict modern society.

II. The Sense of Insecurity

As you know by now, there were already serious strains in European society before 1914. The First World War grew out of these unresolved conflicts, but the fighting solved no fundamental problems and intensified national antagonisms. As a result the European peoples gained no lasting sense of security from the peace settlement of 1919.

A. Change of temper in modern society

Rather, in comparison with the years before 1914, the postwar era seemed threatening and chaotic. Men began to look back to the relative calm of the preceding century as to a golden yesterday. A mood of pessimism and cynicism, of not fatalism and futility, spread through the Western world. The discontent and disillusionment, the fear and insecurity and mounting violence offered a marked contrast to the more orderly methods, the respect for legal forms, contracts, and treaties, which had distinguished the leading nations in the nineteenth century. Even the optimistic faith in progress which had inspired civilized peoples before 1914 lost its earlier intensity. It is important to seek the causes, some of which have already been foreshadowed, which help to account for this change of temper in modern society.

1. Increase in the number of city dwellers

The first unsettling factor to note was the rapid and irreversible increase in the number of city dwellers, especially the urban proletariat. Within half a century all the industrialized nations found that a city population had grown up within their borders which outmatched, outvoted, and out numbered the once dominant rural and agricultural classes. In Britain, Germany, Belgium, France, the United States, and to a lesser degree in the remaining European countries, the generation which came of age about 1920 was a generation largely born and bred in the cities, shaped and dominated by city patterns and city ideals.

2. Less genuine self-reliance

The resulting change in the character of the average twentieth-century citizen born after 1900 is not easy to analyze or to describe. Yet there was a change, a real and disturbing change, in the mentality and the expectations of this modern generation. It might, perhaps, be summed up by saying that the young people had more superficial self-confidence but less genuine self-reliance than their predecessors.

This was understandable. The sense of security which makes people feel habitually calm and at ease is based upon emotional rather than intellectual certainties. For millions of people the transition to city life tended to weaken the two most fundamental "frames" within which men had oriented themselves and learned to feel at home: the immemorial framework of the family group and the framework of the native village or community.

City families were in general smaller than rural families and were often severed from the older generation. They lived in more transient fashion, in rented and often restricted quarters. They had fewer permanent possessions than rural families but more diverse interests. The individuals who composed a city family depended less on one another and less on their immediate neighbors than had been common in village communities.

It has frequently been said that modern city dwellers are "rootless," and the charge is just in the sense that millions of city people feel no personal or intimate ties binding them to their block or precinct. They have no bonds comparable to those which attach a man to the fields he has ploughed for years or the villager to the church spire in the shade of which his ancestors are buried.

Children who grew up in a rural environment shared more intimately in family responsibilities, joined early in the common labors, and learned their capacity and their worth. But city children were often a financial burden throughout school years. As members of large classes and neighborhood groups they were submerged in numbers. When they went to work they were likely to pass their days at a mechanical routine with little chance to feel or express their individuality. This was so because to the industry or corporation which they served, they were impersonal and replaceable automatons.

Many large firms, recognizing these defects, sought to promote group activities among their employees, to enlist their loyalty by stressing the mutuality of the business relationship, and to reward their fidelity by the distribution of shares or bonuses. But the impersonality of modern business and industrial methods continued to frustrate the individual. In the city environment it was less easy for a human being to develop those tendrils that attach him to his world and give him the sense of security which comes to those who are known and needed by their fellows.

City adolescents reflected this difficulty in achieving emotional adjustment. They learned to be alert and brisk and knowing in manner but they often remained inwardly unsure. The strain and the dissatisfaction that made modern life a burden for millions led to an alarming increase in mental ailments and in juvenile delinquency. Mental and emotional ills incapacitated more people than any other maladies.

B. Deepening sense of economic insecurity

To these psychological hazards of modern life there was added, especially after 1929, a deepening sense of economic insecurity. In earlier times, the man in business for himself, the farmer, carpenter, storekeeper, or general practitioner, did not worry about dismissal because he was his own employer. A poor crop or a business recession might mean some lean years but not sudden unemployment and imminent privation. The factory or office worker, however, who had nothing but his job, lived in fear that his job might fail.

This fear lay behind the various government measures, adopted more and more widely in the twentieth century, which promised the working classes some form of insurance against the risks of sickness, accident, disability, and unemployment. The rise in savings accounts, insurance policies, and government social security funds all reflected the need of the workers to lay up some reserve against disaster, or have their government do it for them.

Unfortunately, savings deposited with the banks or the government were not always safe. Bank failures, inflation, ruinous taxes, revolution, or war might destroy the financial security of a whole class or nation. World War I proved to millions of Europeans, who had been subsisting on fixed incomes or annuities, that currency could depreciate and prices soar. The German people learned the full tragedy of inflation after 1920 when their currency depreciated until it became literally worthless. Millions of families watched their wealth, insurance policies, mortgages, pensions, or investments turn to valueless paper. In France the franc lost four-fifths of its prewar value, falling from twenty cents to four.

Finally, even the British pound, monetary unit of the world for a century, fluctuated and fell from the gold standard. The impact of these forfeitures shook the confidence of the disinherited classes. Throughout all the industrialized states many people found their jobs dependent upon vast economic forces they could not comprehend and their savings dependent upon financial fluctuations which they could not control.

To the young who faced the world after 1920 the old and stable values which their parents had trusted seemed less sure. This was not their misconception; they were living in a disreputable age in which the honor of nations, the sanctity of contracts, and the equity praised by the law were often and brazenly betrayed. Such conditions breed fear even in nations which are spared them. The impoverished classes of central Europe, the fugitives from Russia who had been dispossessed by the revolution, the French families that lost their men in the war and their savings in the peace, the British who were fighting to hold their threatened leadership in world trade, all felt the prevalent mood of economic insecurity.

C. Unhinging of international exchange rates

A third factor in the general disquiet was the unhinging of international exchange rates. Here sharp national antagonisms added to the bitterness that is always incited by forfeited investments and repudiated debts. In the economic competition after 1920 few nations admitted themselves at fault but all accused their rivals of cheating. The Germans blamed the Treaty of Versailles and the Reparations Bill for the collapse of their currency. The French blamed the German failure to meet reparations payments in full for the fall of the franc. The British blamed a disordered world exchange for their dislocated trade and proposed a cancellation of war debts all around.

When the United States, which would suffer the heaviest loss from such a course, declined the suggestion, all debtor states criticized the American government. In reality, the war debts and reparations quarrel was no more than a superficial issue in a much graver problem. World production, agricultural and industrial, had been speeded up and world population doubled in a century.

But no adequate machinery had been developed to assure the industrialized countries an equitable share of raw materials or an equitable approach to world markets, with the result that the rival powers fought with tariffs and cartels and currency rules for the trade of a shrinking planet. Nor had any machinery been devised to assure an equitable distribution of wealth, and the maldistribution of purchasing power created needy and depressed classes and famine stricken peoples.

Before its first quarter had ended, the twentieth century revealed itself as a century of deeper violences and sharper vicissitudes than the nineteenth had been. The difference could not be blamed upon any check in material progress and prosperity. In spite of the loss and destruction of World War I the peoples of Europe in 1925 had higher living standards, greater wealth, and a longer life expectancy than they had fever known. But their mood, their methods of government, their political morality had declined since the halcyon years of the long peace, 1871-1914.

If material prosperity and the progress of science could have assured a stable society, the United States should have held a secure and tranquil population. America led the world in the parade of inventions, discoveries, and technological achievements wherewith science has enriched the life of man. The years 1900-1939 brought a 73 per cent gain in the American population, multiplied 4000 automobiles into 4,000,000, equipped 23,000,000 homes in the land with electric light, popularized the motion picture and radio, developed the airplane and other mechanical wonders, and raised the standard of living, of leisure, of income, and of education to levels unimagined a few generations earlier.

Such achievements might well have filled the American people with a mood of sturdy self-confidence. They did breed a mood of confidence between 1920 and 1929, but it was not a sturdy mood. All the proof of power, the nimble machines which gave each American the services of a score of energy-slaves, failed to equip the citizens of the United States with the faith to meet an economic reverse with firmness.

The stock market collapse of 1929 induced a panic which unsettled the nerves of the nation, and American despondency magnified the wave of depression already traversing the globe. If the American people could not have a resolute confidence in that machine age which had bestowed upon them its richest blessings, what confidence could less fortunate nations be expected to display?



Send comments and questions to Professor Gerhard Rempel at Western New England College